Black Friday to Boxing Day 2025: Preparing your business for the busiest time of year

• Australia’s peak sales period, from Black Friday to Boxing Day 2025, is forecast to generate $69.7 billion in retail sales, up 2.7% on last year.
• Consumer behaviour, interest rates, tariffs and supply chain variability are creating new risks for inventory and margins. 
• The next two weeks are critical: businesses should lock in stock, confirm logistics, align teams and secure supplier capacity to meet demand.
• Flexible working capital can help fund larger orders without compromising cash flow.

From shifting consumer behaviour and cost pressures to tariffs and logistical uncertainty, these four forces will shape how you plan, procure and fulfil this peak season.

Australians are shopping earlier and hunting harder for value, concentrating on discount events such as Black Friday. In recent years, what was traditionally a United States-only sales day has become one of the biggest sales periods of the year in Australia and around the world; consumer spending between Black Friday through to ‘Cyber Monday’ is expected to reach $6.7 billion over four days, a 5.5% increase from 2024.

Despite an expected spending increase during Black Friday, retailers are concerned that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to keep the cash rate at 3.6% will negatively impact consumer spending. This balance between consumer confidence and discretionary spend will make retailers’ inventory decisions subject to more risk. 

Shifts in tariffs and landed costs since last year are altering margins on imported goods, especially in apparel, homewares and electronics. Companies will need to review their pricing and supply chains to ensure they stay competitive. Australian exports have also been affected by US tariffs following the removal of the de minimis exemption; a long-standing import concession used by retailers which allowed low-value goods to enter the US duty-free.

Meanwhile, lead times and freight capacity have improved in some areas but remain variable. This means ‘order by’ date discipline is essential. Australia Post has issued 2025 Christmas lodgement guidance to help businesses set customer cut‑offs.

The following are peak-season considerations for the next fortnight; prioritise based on your channels, margins and operational constraints.

• Forecast by SKU and channel for Black Friday and the first two December weekends; stress-test conservative, base and upside scenarios.
• Bring forward POs on bestsellers; confirm supplier capacity and lead times, and line up backup suppliers or substitutions for constrained SKUs.
• Lock logistics: reserve carrier capacity and shipping windows; set re-route contingencies and publish ‘order by’ dates aligned to the Australia Post Christmas cut-off.

• Enable click-and-collect and ship-from-store where relevant; define store-to-store transfer rules to rescue near-miss orders.
• Align rosters to demand peaks and cross-train teams; run daily stand-ups to rebalance inventory across channels and stores.

• Prepare proactive comms (order status, delays, alternatives) and refresh FAQs/returns; offer clear SLAs across email, chat and social media channels.
• Set contingency messaging for weather or carrier disruptions; give realistic ETAs and alternatives to protect trust.

• Ensure a fast, mobile-first site; validate Google Merchant Center feeds; review security processes 

• Confirm packaging supply for peak period; implement automated address validation to reduce failed deliveries, re-ships and support load.

• Activate or increase working capital facilities to fund earlier/larger buys and freight; onboard priority suppliers to supply chain finance to secure capacity while preserving terms and matching repayments to the sales cycle.

The next two weeks will define your availability, margins and customer experience through to Boxing Day. 

Locking in supply, tuning logistics, staging promotions carefully and ensuring your team and systems are ready will separate strong performers from those caught short. And when larger, earlier inventory commitments strain cash flow, the right working capital structure turns constraint into competitive advantage.

Trade Finance ensures smooth import transactions by funding inventory and service purchases upfront, reducing cash flow strain during critical trade activities. Supply Chain Accelerate pays suppliers early to win production priority and better terms while maintaining your days payable outstanding (DPO), improving reliability and smoothing cash conversion.

Whether you’re managing seasonal spikes, opening new channels or diversifying suppliers, peak season demands careful preparation. Leveraging working capital solutions will give you the cash flow flexibility to move quickly without tying up working capital or requiring property security.

Find out more about our Trade Finance and Debtor Finance facilities and if they are right for your business, or talk to us to find the best solution for your business needs.