Black Friday to January: Preparing your business for peak season
Australia's Christmas sales period is forecast to generate $77.7 billion in retail spending. But with higher interest rates, persistent inflation and increasingly price-conscious consumers, making the most of seasonal demand takes more than stocking up. Here's how Australian businesses can prepare for peak trading while protecting margins and managing cash flow into the new year.
- Australian retail sales are forecast to reach $77.7 billion in the six weeks leading up to Christmas 2026, up 5.5% on last year.
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday are expected to generate $7.2 billion in spending between 27 and 30 November.
- Higher interest rates, inflation and changing consumer behaviour are putting additional pressure on inventory decisions and business profitability.
- Businesses need to review supplier commitments, delivery deadlines, staffing costs and cash flow requirements through January.
Australia's peak sales season is approaching, and the spending forecasts point to another significant opportunity for businesses.
According to the Australian Retail Council and Roy Morgan, Australians are expected to spend $77.7 billion in the six weeks leading up to Christmas 2026, a 5.5% increase on the previous year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday alone are forecast to generate $7.2 billion in sales over four days.
But the opportunity comes with challenges.
Five interest rate increases during 2026, persistent inflation and increasingly value-conscious consumers are changing the financial considerations for businesses preparing for the seasonal rush.
For retailers, wholesalers, importers and suppliers, the challenge isn't simply having enough stock to meet demand. It's ensuring that inventory purchases, operating expenses and financing commitments don't place unnecessary pressure on cash flow before the revenue arrives.
And with financial obligations continuing after Boxing Day, preparation needs to extend well into January.
From shifting consumer behaviour and cost pressures to tariffs and logistical uncertainty, these four forces will shape how you plan, procure and fulfil this peak season.
Australians are preparing to spend big during Black Friday and Christmas, but value remains a priority.
The Australian Retail Council and Roy Morgan forecast average Black Friday spending of $920, up 14.4% on last year.
However, Deloitte's Retail Report 2026 found 34% of consumers plan to restrict their holiday spending, while 32% intend to switch to cheaper alternatives.
For businesses, balancing competitive promotions with profitability is essential. Discounts may increase sales, but margins must still cover product costs, freight, transaction fees and promotional expenses. Careful inventory and pricing decisions will be critical.
Following five increases during 2026, the RBA cash rate reached 4.85% in November, while annual inflation reached 4.3% in September.
Higher borrowing costs increase the expense of financing inventory and operations, while inflation continues to affect business expenses and household spending.
Before committing to larger stock purchases, businesses should assess financing costs, supplier payment terms and potential changes in demand to protect profitability and cash flow.
For businesses sourcing products internationally, exchange rates, freight, insurance, duties and taxes all influence inventory costs.
Trade policy changes also warrant attention. The US has suspended its duty-free exemption for low-value imports, while a 12.5% tariff introduced in July 2026 applies to certain Australian exports, subject to exemptions.
Businesses should verify applicable trade requirements and calculate full landed costs before placing orders, particularly when seasonal discounts are already squeezing margins.
Stock availability means little if products cannot reach customers on time.
Australia Post has published its recommended Christmas 2026 lodgement dates, with deadlines varying according to the origin, destination and delivery service.
Businesses should confirm supplier lead times, carrier capacity and delivery contingencies early. Communicating realistic customer order deadlines can help minimise delays, additional costs and returns during peak trading.
This is the first peak season since the RBA’s reforms removed surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa debit, prepaid and credit cards from 1 October 2026, alongside lower interchange caps. Card acceptance costs now need to be built into your prices, which affects margin calculations on discounted stock.
The ACCC has launched another sweep of Black Friday and Cyber Monday advertising, targeting “sitewide” or “storewide” claims with significant exclusions, and countdown timers or limited-time offers that run past their stated end date. The sweep extends to emails and social media, and follows penalties paid by several retailers over previous Black Friday promotions.
With Black Friday beginning on 27 November, businesses should focus on the following areas to strengthen operational and financial readiness.
- Align staffing and operating capacity with expected sales peaks.
- Review Christmas and New Year public holidays, applicable penalty rates and supplier operating hours.
- Cross-train staff to support customer service, order fulfilment and inventory management.
- Plan for additional operating expenses, including temporary labour, packaging and freight.
- Align staffing and operating capacity with expected sales peaks.
- Review Christmas and New Year public holidays, applicable penalty rates and supplier operating hours.
- Cross-train staff to support customer service, order fulfilment and inventory management.
- Plan for additional operating expenses, including temporary labour, packaging and freight.
- Publish realistic delivery deadlines, order tracking information and returns policies.
- Prepare customer communications covering delays, stock availability and alternative products.
- Ensure promotional pricing and sales conditions are accurate and transparent.
- Review discount claims in light of the ACCC's misleading promotions warning.
- Check website performance and mobile shopping functionality ahead of major promotional periods.
- Confirm payment processing, inventory feeds and order management systems can support expected demand.
- Review cybersecurity controls, including account access, payment security and staff awareness of scams.
- Ensure online stock availability and delivery information are regularly updated.
- Confirm packaging supplies and warehouse capacity before sales volumes increase.
- Review order picking, packing and address validation processes to reduce fulfilment errors.
- Establish contingencies for delayed deliveries, damaged products and customer returns.
- Align customer ordering deadlines with carrier recommendations and internal processing requirements.
- Prepare a cash flow forecast extending through January 2027, including conservative, expected and stronger sales scenarios.
- Map supplier payments, freight charges, payroll, superannuation, tax obligations and financing commitments against expected receipts.
- Review inventory turnover and the amount of working capital committed to seasonal purchases.
- Consider whether existing funding arrangements provide sufficient flexibility to support sales demand and subsequent operating expenses.
A successful Christmas trading period doesn't automatically guarantee healthy cash flow in January.
While seasonal sales can boost revenue, supplier payments, staffing costs and logistics expenses often fall due before customer payments arrive. For businesses selling on credit terms, this gap can extend well beyond the peak trading period.
Another consideration is Payday Super introduced on 1 July 2026, employers must now make superannuation contributions in connection with each payday, with payments generally required to reach employees' funds within seven business days, subject to exceptions. This creates more frequent cash flow commitments, particularly for businesses employing seasonal staff.
To prepare, businesses should forecast cash flow through January, mapping supplier payments, wages, superannuation, tax obligations and other expenses against expected customer receipts.
It's also important to consider slower-than-expected sales, increased returns and unsold inventory.
Planning for different scenarios can help identify potential funding gaps early, allowing businesses to adjust inventory purchases, manage expenses and secure additional working capital before financial pressures build.
For businesses preparing for peak trading, access to working capital can make it easier to manage supplier commitments and cash flow without relying entirely on existing cash reserves.
Two solutions worth considering are trade finance and debtor finance.
OctetTrade: Fund inventory and supplier payments
Trade finance enables eligible businesses to pay domestic and international suppliers upfront while accessing extended repayment terms of up to 120 days.
This can be particularly useful when businesses need to purchase inventory ahead of seasonal demand but want to preserve working capital for other operating expenses.
By providing additional time between supplier payments and repayments, trade finance can help businesses better align purchasing commitments with their sales cycle.
OctetDebtor: Access funds tied up in unpaid invoices
For businesses supplying other businesses on credit terms, outstanding invoices can tie up working capital at a time when cash is needed for additional stock or ongoing operations.
Debtor and invoice finance provides eligible businesses with access to up to 85% of the value of qualifying receivables, allowing them to access cash without waiting for customers to pay.
This can help wholesalers, distributors and other B2B suppliers manage the timing difference between fulfilling seasonal orders and receiving payment.
Both solutions address different stages of the business cash conversion cycle, helping businesses consider how to fund growth while maintaining day-to-day liquidity.
The 2026 seasonal sales period presents significant opportunities for Australian businesses, with forecasts pointing to another substantial increase in retail spending.
But higher financing costs, changing consumer behaviour and continued operating pressures mean strong sales alone won't determine commercial success.
Businesses that understand their inventory requirements, manage supplier commitments, protect margins and forecast cash flow beyond Boxing Day will be better positioned to navigate the season.
The priority is not simply preparing for the busiest weeks of the year. It's ensuring the business has the financial flexibility to manage what comes next.
Find out how our OctetTrade Finance and OctetDebtor Finance facilities can support your working capital requirements, or speak with a working capital finance specialist about the right solution for your business.
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Disclaimer: The above article content and comments are our views and should not be construed as advice. You should act using your own information and judgment. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon multiple sources the author believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the author’s own judgment as at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.